Fri 19/01/2018 - 04:21 EST

Jacksonville at New England 2018 AFC Championship Picks

Jacksonville at New England 2018 AFC Championship Picks

Can Jags Get To Brady?

My Team's Next MatchNew England Patriots

All season long, the Jacksonville Jaguars have thrived because of their punishing, unforgiving defense. That unit got them to the AFC Championship Game, and if the Jaguars are to make the first Super Bowl appearance in franchise history, it will happen because their front seven is able to pressure, contain and disrupt New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady. In fact, this may be their only hope, because it is the one area of the game where Jacksonville holds a distinct advantage.

Jacksonville got to the quarterback 55 times this season, the second-most sacks of any NFL team. They were led by defensive end Calais Campbell, whose 14.5 sacks also placed him second in the NFL. On the flip side, Brady was sacked 35 times this season. Only Buffalo's Tyrod Taylor (46), who the Jags saw in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, hit the turf more this season among QBs from teams that made the playoffs. 

Is this enough of an edge to give Jacksonville a chance for the upset? We look at this and other variables, based on odds provided by Bovada.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+270) at New England Patriots (-340)


Expect the Patriots to counter the Jags pass rush by utilizing a lot of no-huddle offense, and calling plenty of quick-hitting run plays between the tackles. While fast, the Jacksonville line is not overly big and New England may be able to overpower them and wear them down physically via a steady diet of power running. Dion Lewis went for 141 yards from scrimmage last week against the Titans, and the Patriots also expect RB Rex Burkhead (knee) to be good to go for the first time since Dec. 17. He had six TDs in four games before his injury.

Another key factor for the Jaguars could very well be the mastermind behind their personnel, VP of football operations Tom Coughlin. The first head coach in Jaguars history, Coughlin got them to the AFC title game in their second season in existence, but he's best known for his work in charge of the New York Giants, winning two Super Bowls against Pats coach Bill Belichick while holding Belichick's team to 14 and 17 points in the two games. The rest of the NFL is 0-5 against Belichick in the Super Bowl and none ever held the Pats under 20 points.

The Jaguars lost 20-6 at New England in that 1996 AFC title tilt and are 0-2 in AFC Championship Games. They are 1-3 in previous playoff games against the Patriots, posting their lone win at home, while dropping the three games in Foxborough by a combined margin of 79-29.


To have any chance at the upset, Jacksonville will need its top-ranked NFL pass defense (169.9 yards per game) to keep Brady, the NFL's leading passer this season (4557 yards) in check. The Jaguars were also the league's second-best scoring defense (16.8 points per game). On offense, it will be about ball control for the Jags. They can't count on QB Blake Bortles to win the game for them, so they will need to be able to maintain a consistent running attack.

The Jaguars were the league's top rushing team during the regular season (141.4 yards per game) and have upped that pace to 159.5 yards per game in the postseason. But New England's balanced attack figures to be a difference maker. The Patriots have won seven straight playoff games at home and are 6-1 at home in AFC Championship Games. Brady is 18-3 at home in the playoffs. And the Patriots won't take Jacksonville for granted like the Steelers did. 

BABB Pick: New England (-8), under (46.5) Bovada






Category : Betting Picks

Tag : Bill Belichick , blake bortles , Football , nfl , tom brady , tom coughlin

More articles...
Betting Picks - 18/01/22
Australian Open 2022 Betting Picks - Mens & Women's Winners 
Australian Open 2022 Betting Picks - Mens & Women's Winners

The first Grand Slam tournament of 2022 is upon us and without the world's number one Novak Djokovic, it's a wide-open field for the men's game.

It's also the first Grand Slam for Naomi Osaka since her troubles last year, and with no Serena Williams either all the women will feel they have a chance to secure the first major of the season.

We'll take a look at the best bets for the Australian Open tournament that ends next weekend and see if we can earn you some extra cash from the tournament.

Betting Picks - 12/01/22
NFL Wildcard Playoffs 2022 Betting Picks 
NFL Wildcard Playoffs 2022 Betting Picks

We're into the business end of the season now as the NFL Wildcard round is upon us with some high-stakes games to be played this weekend.

Those games include a huge game between the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Dallas Cowboys, while the New England Patriots will look to overcome the odds and reach the playoffs by beating Buffalo Bills.

Let's take a look at the best betting picks for these two games and see if we can earn you some cash from these exciting football games.

Betting Picks - 07/01/22
UFC 270 Betting Picks - Ciryl Gane Slight Favourite to Beat Francis Ngannou 
UFC 270 Betting Picks - Ciryl Gane Slight Favourite to Beat Francis Ngannou

The UFC is back for 2022 and the first numbered card of the year is headlined by the top two heavyweights in the world as undisputed champion Francis Ngannou takes on interim champion Ciryl Gane.

Live from the Honda Centre in Anaheim, California on January 20th, the two most feared men in the organization will go head-to-head in a five-round war to crown the undisputed best heavyweight in the world right now.

We'll take a look at the betting odds for the bout and see what picks we can find to earn you some bonus cash for the new year.

Betting Picks - 07/01/22
NFL 2021 Week 18 Betting Picks 
NFL 2021 Week 18 Betting Picks

The NFL is back once again for Week 18 and there are some stellar matchups for fans to sink their teeth into at the start of the new year.

Among them will see the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, without Antonio Brown after last week's walk-out, take on the Carolina Panthers, while we'll also see Washington go head-to-head with the New York Giants.

Let's take a look at the best bets for those big games and see if we can get you some extra cash for the new year after the holidays.