Fri 27/10/2017 - 04:55 EDT

College Football Week 9 Predictions

College Football Week 9 Predictions

The surge of confidence comes at a good time after last week's 1-2 record with one push. Even after the down week, I am 5-3 over the last three weeks. That's good enough to beat the book, but I'll be looking to forge further ahead this week. First, here's how those week 8 plays unfolded:

  • Syracuse/Miami OVER 59.5 = LOSS
  • Wake Forest/Georgia Tech UNDER 48 = LOSS
  • Kentucky/Mississippi State UNDER 54.5=WIN
  • Louisville/Florida State OVER 59=PUSH

A trademark of my handicapping involves watching specific teams closely enough to learn their nuances and tendencies from week to week. For this reason, you'll notice some of the same teams used in Week 7 and Week 8 will again appear on my ticket in Week 9. 

Florida State -3.5 @ Boston College +3.5 (O/U: 47)

This is an intersting matchup as all of the sudden Boston College has scored 40+ in consecutive weeks. The Eagles feature a power running attack and FSU struggles to stop the run.

The Seminoles lost a tough game at home to Louisville last week to drop to 2-4 on the year. Still, FSU has had tough luck all season and really doesn't have a bad loss (Alabama, Miami, NC State and Louisville). Combined, those four teams have just four losses between them.

The bottom line here is that FSU has far more talent on both sides of the ball and will roll BC here despite what the Eagles have been able to do the last two weeks against Louisville and Virginia. 

TAKE Florida State -3.5

Louisville -3 @ Wake Forest + 3 (O/U: 61.5)

As noted in this space last week, the Louisville defense is remarkably bad, but a potent offense led by Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson always keeps them in the game. The formula for the Cards to play winning football is simple: hold the other team under 30 and let Lamar go wild.

The Wake offense is much-improved from a year ago, so the high total of 61.5 is warranted. Louisville showed more patience and a better running game last week in beating Florida State.

Freshman RB Dae Williams made his first collegiate start after offseason knee surgery and looks like an excellent complement to Jackson. The Cards will do enough positive things in this game to hold off Wake. 

TAKE Louisville -3

Tennessee +4 @ Kentucky -4 (O/U: 46)

This UT football team is beleagured and likely on the brink of firing head coach Butch Jones, but is it possible the media is piling on just a little bit? At 3-4, the Vols have been blown out by Alabama and Georgia - but keep in mind that those are top 5 teams.

Let's not forget that Kentucky was blown out last week by Mississippi State 45-7. By the way, Mississippi State was also blown out by Georgia 31-3 just a few short weeks ago.

So these are two middling teams to be sure, but why this UK team is a four-point favorite to a team its beaten exactly once in 32 years is amazing to me. The Vols have much better overall talent and will rally around their fading coach. Four points is a gift. 

TAKE Tennessee +4

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