College Football Week 7 Predictions
In week 6, I went 2-1, successfully calling the over in the Minnesota/Purdue game and pegging the under in the Kent State/Northern Illinois matchup. A last-second TD from Miami prevented us from a clean sweep, but we'll be expecting perfection this week.
If not, a bettor can always survive hitting 2 out of every 3 plays.
Miami Ohio (-9.5) @ Kent State (+9.5) O/U: 42.5
It's not that I'm obsessed with bad MAC football, but I do love making money.
Of all schools, Kent State has been a cash cow for me this year. When will Vegas understand the depths of inadequacy of the Golden Flashes offense? They are currently ranked 264th in total offense, but that might not paint a fair picture of just how bad this unit is.
Last week, I wrote that Kent State would "struggle to score against air." I'll go one stronger this week, by saying that Air might even force a few three and outs. For its part, Miami of Ohio is also a bad offensive squad ranking 128th nationally in total yards. Minus a slew of random turnovers, these punchless teams will continue their struggles, making 42.5 a big number to cover.
Purdue (+16.5) @ Wisconsin (-16.5) O/U: 51.5
No, I don't always bet the same teams in consecutive weeks, but when a bettor has a good read and the lines continue to be weak, it's time to strike. This Purdue squad hasn't yet gotten the respect it deserves from Vegas or the rest of the college football world - no doubt owing to its prolonged woes under the old coaching regime.
But there's a new sheriff in town in the form of first year head coach Jeff Brohm, who has this program heading in the right direction at 3-2. The Boilermakers appear poised to make a bowl - a remarkable feat after the program posted just nine wins over the previous four seasons.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin is getting too much respect at 5-0.
Purdue will be the toughest team the Badgers have faced this season and this will be a game in the fourth quarter just like the Boilermakers previous two games against ranked opponents. 16.5 is a ridiculously high number in a game Purdue has a puncher's chance to win.
Florida State (-7) @ Duke (+7) O/U: 44
Ok, so I'm playing another team that I played last week, but I can't help myself in the case of this Florida State team, which might be the best 1-3 squad in the history of college football.
Basically, the Noles' have played a great schedule beating a tough Wake Forest team on the road and losing to Alabama, NC State, and Miami - currently ranked first, eleventh and twentieth respectively in this week's poll. FSU wasn't disgraced against Alabama in the opener, losing 24-7 despite the season-ending injury to starting QB Deondre Francois.
They were beaten just a TD by a solid NC State team and outplayed Miami last week before giving up the go-ahead TD in the final seconds.
Duke sits at 4-2 on the season, but has lost two straight, including a blowout to Miami (31-6) two weeks ago. FSU is a good team playing to salvage its season and freshman QB James Blackman is finding himself in this offense. I think FSU rolls.
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