The NFL week 15 betting story
By Bob Duff
Some of the NFL's best Week 15 match-ups, with odds courtesy of Bovada.lv:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) at Dallas Cowboys (-7)
Has the campaign to make America's Team great again run out of steam? Through 10 games, the Cowboys were a bettor's best friend, going 9-1 against the spread. Since then, Dallas is a dismal 0-3 ATS. Young quarterback Dak Prescott has hit the wall.
That being said, only the New York Giants have been able to beat the Cowboys this season. Tampa Bay is on a roll, winning and covering in five straight games thanks mainly to a smothering defense. But their run stops here. Dallas won't cover the seven-point spread but the Cowboys will win straight up, as they've done in five of their last six games against the Bucs. And you'll want to be all over the under as well. Games between these two teams have gone under in nine of the last 11 meetings.
Pick: The Buccaneeers (-7) and the Under (46.5)
Detroit Lions (+4.5) at New York Giants (-4.5)
While the Giants were handling the Cowboys for the second time this season last week, the Lions were stumbling against the woeful Bears for the second time this season. Detroit avoided another embarassing loss to Chicago but the performance of Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford wearing a glove to protect an injured figner on his throwing hand did nothing to inspire confidence.
One edge for the Lions is that the visiting team has gone 7-2 straight up and 8-12 against the spread in the last nine meetings between these two teams. Nine of Detroit's 13 games this season and each of the Giants' last five games have gone under.
Pick: The Giants (-4.5) and the Under (41)
New England Patriots (-3.5) at Denver Broncos (+3.5)
OK, so maybe this one isn't as sexy without the Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning sub plot. But you've still got the explosive Patriots offense matching wits with the stifling Broncos defense. Including last season's AFC Championship Game, Denver has always been Brady's personal nemesis. Going back to 2005, the Patriots are 1-6 both straight up and against the spread in the Mlie High City. If you take it all the way back to 1984, the Patriots are 3-15 straight up and 4-14 ATS at Denver. But this season, Brady has 15 touchdown passes and zero interceptions on the road.
Still, the Broncos are a great underdog bet. Denver is on a four-game winning streak both straight up and against the spread as a home underdog. Overall, the Broncos are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 as a dog. And the Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with winning records.
Pick: The Broncos (+3.5)
Tennessee Titans (+5.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
Deadlocked with the Houston Texans for top spot in the AFC South, the Titans are right in the playoff race but Houston holds the tiebreaker. The Chiefs and Oakland Raiders are both 10-3 atop the AFC West, but thanks to their win over Oakland last week, the Chiefs control their playoff destiny.
Tennessee has quietly snuck into the playoff race with three wins in their last four games. The Chiefs are the quietest elite team in the NFL, going 21-3 in their last 24 regular-season games. Kansas City leads the NFL in takeaways and Arrowhead Stadium is a tough place for a veteran QB to win, let alone a kid like Marcus Mariota.
Pick: The Chiefs (-5.5)
Category : Betting Picks
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