2018 Kentucky Derby Contenders: Audible

Audible on the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard

New York-bred Audible won the (G1) Florida Derby and 100 Kentucky Derby qualifying points on March 24, putting him in a tie with Noble Indy at the top of the leaderboard. He had previously picked up 10 points by winning the (G2) Holy Bull. He'll make his next start in the Derby on Saturday, May 5.   

Audible Race Record

Audible finished third in his first lifetime start at Belmont Park, but he's been on a roll ever since. He broke his maiden in his next start at Aqueduct, coming from mid-pack to win by 1 3/4 lengths in a one-mile race. He closed out 2017 in the allowance ranks, winning by more than nine, again at one mile. He opened his three-year-old season with a 5 1/2 length win in the (G2) Holy Bull Stakes at 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream Park, and then justified that result with a 3 length win in the (G1) Florida Derby at 1 1/8 miles, also at Gulfstream.

Audible Pedigree

Audible's sire is Into Mischief, who raced six times and won three and finished second in the other three. One of his wins was in the (G1) Cash Call Futurity, and he was runner-up in two other graded stakes tries. Except for the 1 1/16 miles Cash Call, all of his races were at seven furlongs or less. His grandsire is Harlan's Holiday, who won several Grade 1 races, including the Florida Derby and Blue Grass Stakes before running seventh in the 2002 Kentucky Derby. Audible's dam is Blue Devil Bel, who won seven times in 20 lifetime starts, all at the allowance or claiming level, and all in sprints under one mile. 

Why Audible Can Win the Kentucky Derby

As the competition has gotten tougher, as the distances have gotten longer, he's stepped up to meet every challenge, and has done it with some ease. He has good tactical speed, and can sit right off the leaders or come from a bit further back, and he has good acceleration when they hit the top of the lane and the real running starts. And he has Pletcher.

Why Audible Can't Win the Kentucky Derby

Unlike his stablemate Noble Indy, he has very little distance pedigree on either side of his family, and although he seemed to handle the 1 1/8 mile Florida Derby, 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby is something else again. He's not the fastest horse out of the gate, and while he's been able to overcome that in his races so far, in the Derby a poor break can get you very quickly into trouble that you may never get out of. 

Audible Likely to Drop in the Odds

Depending on how Bolt d'Oro and a couple other top contenders do in their final prep races, Audible could be at worst the second or third favorite for the race, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him go off somewhere around 7-2, a significant drop from the 8-1 he can be future bet right now at Bovada's online racebook. 

See Also: Kentucy Derby Contenders: Noble Indy

 

Category : Betting Picks

Tag : Bovada , Horse Racing

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