New England Patriots @ Los Angeles Rams Odds

Super Bowl LIII Breakdown

Although this isn’t the Super Bowl matchup many expected, the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams are bound to put on a show. Oddsmakers are banking on it.

This three-point spread is not a surprise. No Super Bowl has included one larger than five points since 2009. With both the Rams and Patriots sporting year-long point differentials in the triple digits, this one was never going to be any different.

The over/under is a different story. Most sportsbooks have set it at 59, the highest over/under for a Super Bowl in NFL history.

To assume this game hits the 60-point threshold doesn’t take much imagination. Both New England and Los Angeles are among the five best offensive teams in the league, and their previous postseason contests support high-scoring projections. The Patriots’ two playoff games totaled 69 and 68 points, respectively, while the Rams’ came in at a tick lower, totaling 52 and 49.

Should the Rams get out to an early lead, the under will look pretty good. They already milk running back Todd Gurley, and an onset edge will invite them to pound the ball that much more.

At the same time, the Patriots are a pass-first team. Their style creates extra possessions for both them and their opponent. The inevitable point differential of this matchup may be up for debate, but someone’s going to be playing from behind at some point. And looking at all the weapons both teams have at wide receiver, there’s a real chance this turns into shootout.

Super Bowl Odds for Patriots @ Rams

  • 1

    Los Angeles Rams (-125)

  • 2

    New England Patriots (+105)

Predictions for Patriots @ Rams

The Patriots opened this game as underdogs, but it didn’t take long for that change. None of which comes as a surprise. 

New England is too familiar within this setting to doubt them. Quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick have reached eight Super Bowls together, winning five. And of the three they lost, only one has come by more than four points.

People are no doubt waiting for these Pats to fall. They are, after all, far from the primetime version of themselves. Brady is 41 (going on 42), Rob Gronkowski only just started playing like himself again, the defense forces a lot of turnovers but also gives up a bunch of big-yardage plays, and the offense is more dependent than ever on quick-fire short gains. 

The Patriots haven’t exactly fared well away from home, either. They’re 4-5 on the year after their win in Kansas City, with a minus-13 point differential. This game takes place in Atlanta, which is neutral territory, but the Rams are a more convincing 6-2 outside Los Angeles.

In the end, though, it makes sense to go with experience. The Rams’ defense has shown cracks this season, particularly in the secondary, where they are 23rd in net yards allowed per passing attempt and 25th in total passing touchdowns surrendered.

Count on a high score. Maybe even expect a close game. But don’t bank on the Rams mucking up the tail end of New England’s dynasty.

Prediction: Patriots (-3, +105), Over (59)