This three-point spread is not a surprise. No Super Bowl has included one larger than five points since 2009. With both the Rams and Patriots sporting year-long point differentials in the triple digits, this one was never going to be any different.
The over/under is a different story. Most sportsbooks have set it at 59, the highest over/under for a Super Bowl in NFL history.
To assume this game hits the 60-point threshold doesn’t take much imagination. Both New England and Los Angeles are among the five best offensive teams in the league, and their previous postseason contests support high-scoring projections. The Patriots’ two playoff games totaled 69 and 68 points, respectively, while the Rams’ came in at a tick lower, totaling 52 and 49.
Should the Rams get out to an early lead, the under will look pretty good. They already milk running back Todd Gurley, and an onset edge will invite them to pound the ball that much more.
At the same time, the Patriots are a pass-first team. Their style creates extra possessions for both them and their opponent. The inevitable point differential of this matchup may be up for debate, but someone’s going to be playing from behind at some point. And looking at all the weapons both teams have at wide receiver, there’s a real chance this turns into shootout.