One of the biggest determinants in the outcome of any baseball game is the quality of the pitching that a team gets from their starter. Sure, you have to score runs to win a game, but if the other team scores a handful of runs, you're much more likely to lose even if you have a decent offensive outing as a squad. Due to the importance of starting pitching in baseball, several betting systems have been based off the performance of starting pitchers. The baseball pitcher form reversal betting system is another that baseball bettors can use to gain insight on the potential outcome of a ballgame.
Baseball Pitcher Form Reversal Betting System Review
The baseball pitcher form reversal betting system is a rough way of calculating the expected number of runs that a pitcher will give up in the next game. By looking at a pitcher's ERA throughout the season and comparing it to the ERA of his last three games, you can get an idea if the pitcher is due to have a good outing. The formula used is to double the pitcher's ERA for the entire season before subtracting his ERA for the last three games.
If a pitcher has an ERA of 4.65 over the season and an ERA of 2.25 over his last three games, his expected ERA according to this system comes out to 7.05, which implies that he will have a bad outing the next time he starts.
On the other hand, if a pitcher has an ERA of 4.35 for the season and an ERA of 6.00 over the past three games, his expected runs allowed works out to 2.70, implying that the pitcher is more likely to have a great start.
Similar to the good luck and bad luck baseball betting systems, the pitcher form reversal system is based on the theory that the pitcher's stats will return to some sort of equilibrium based on their actual skill. As a result, bettors should back teams with pitchers who have had a string of bad outcomes and shun teams starting pitchers who have been unusually hot.
Is It a Good System To Follow?
Unlike systems like the departing dogs betting system, the pitcher form reversal betting system is intended as a tool to gain insight rather than a system that promotes automatic wagers when a particular set of circumstances arise. Taking this into account, the pitcher form reversal betting system shouldn't be considered a sure thing to derive profits.
No betting system guarantees profits and responsible fans of baseball wagering should always consider other circumstances that can pop up on a game to game basis. Perhaps the most inspiring insight that this system offers is the fact that people and sportsbooks might be handicapping games according to short term streaks too often, providing an opportunity to get better payouts by betting against the herd.