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What Do Common Opponents Tell Us In Mayweather-Pacquiao?
It has been a fight that is more than six years in the making but boxing's two best pound-for-pound fighters this decade, if not longer, finally face off on Saturday night in Las Vegas as Floyd Mayweather battles Manny Pacquiao. It's the biggest fight since Mike Tyson's heyday and could well be the final mega-fight for many years because of the state of boxing in the United States. It's now a niche sport like horse racing and has been passed by mixed martial arts, which would have been unthinkable back when Tyson was the biggest star in the world.
What's At Stake?
Mayweather (47-0, 26 KOs), who has won world titles in five weight classes, is universally considered the No. 1 fighter in the world pound-for-pound. Pacquiao (57-5-2, 38 KOs), the only fighter in boxing history to win world titles in eight divisions, is right behind him at No. 2. There are dozens of props on this fight at Bovada. Mayweather is the -210 favorite with Pacquiao at +170. The over/under rounds is 11.5, with over a -310 favorite. Mayweather winning by decision or technical decision is the -130 favorite. Could we see a draw? That would surely lead to a rematch (as might any close decision). A draw is +1000 -- many books fear that result because of several long-shot bets on it.
This will be the biggest economic event boxing has ever known, worth an estimated $400 million in expected revenue. Mayweather is expected to take home a cool $180 million and Pacquiao $140 million. Some have suggested that the bout is happening five years too late, because Mayweather, 38, of Las Vegas, and the 36-year-old Filipino icon Pacquiao would have been closer to their primes had the showdown taken place when it was initially being planned for in March 2010.
But in one regard it might make for better TV now. Mayweather is a defensive genius but not as agile as he once was. A stationary Mayweather means Pacquiao may be able to get his hands on him. Manny has more knockout power than Floyd does, it's just that Mayweather never gets knocked down because he is able to avoid such punishment with his quickness and flawless defensive technique.
Pacquiao throws many more punches than Mayweather does, but Mayweather connects on a higher percentage. In recent fights, both have seen a decline in their productivity. Bob Canobbio, founder and president of CompuBox, said that "Mayweather's output began to decline in his last two fights, but he's still very accurate." And Pacquiao has thrown fewer punches on average in his last three fights—all subsequent to his 2012 knockout loss to Mexican great Juan Manuel Marquez.
There are five: Marquez, Ricky Hatton, Oscar De La Hoya, Shane Mosley and Miguel Cotto. Here is how Mayweather beat all five:
Oscar De La Hoya — May 5, 2007: Mayweather wins in 12 rounds by SD
Ricky Hatton — Dec. 8, 2007: Mayweather wins in 10 rounds by TKO
Juan Manuel Marquez — Sept. 19, 2009: Mayweather wins in 12 rounds by UD
Shane Mosley — May 1, 2010: Mayweather wins in 12 rounds by UD
Miguel Cotto — May 5, 2012: Mayweather wins in 12 rounds by UD
Pacquiao is 6-1-1 against those five. The results:
Juan Manuel Marquez — May 8, 2004: Pacquiao draws in 12 rounds by SD
Juan Manuel Marquez — March 15, 2008: Pacquiao wins in 12 rounds by SD
Oscar De La Hoya — Dec. 6, 2008: Pacquiao wins in eight rounds by RTD
Ricky Hatton — May 2, 2009: Pacquiao wins in two rounds by KO
Miguel Cotto — Nov. 14, 2009: Pacquiao wins in 12 rounds by TKO
Shane Mosley — May 7, 2011: Pacquiao wins in 12 rounds by UD
Juan Manuel Marquez — Nov. 12, 2011: Pacquiao wins in 12 rounds by UD
Juan Manuel Marquez — Dec. 8, 2012: Marquez wins in six rounds by KO
For what it's worth, Hatton, De La Hoya, Mosley and Marquez all have picked Mayweather to win. Cotto picked Pacquiao.
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Conor McGregor is a legendary UFC fighter. Not many combatants can take a year off from fighting, announce their next bout, and instantly be established as the overwhelming odds-on favorite in the UFC 257 picks. Yet that's exactly how The Notorious one rolls. He will headline UFC 257 on Jan. 23, facing Dustin Poirier in a rematch of former UFC world lightweight champs. McGregor is the -235 favorite in the bout.