Fri 10/03/2017 - 12:50 EST

Tampa Bay Derby 2017

Tampa Bay Derby 2017

Tampay Bay Derby Predictions

By Brent Sedo

With 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner, victory in the Tampa Bay Derby essentially ensures a spot in the big race come the first weekend of May. 

It's going to be wide-open affair, with any of five or six horses in with a legitimate shot. Many of the top contenders are coming in after running the local prep, the (G3) Sam F. Davis Stakes, and the second-place finisher there, Tapwrit, has been installed as a lukewarm 3-1 morning line favorite.

One of two in the field trained by Todd Pletcher, Tapwrit closed out 2016 with a win in the Pulpit Stakes at Gulfstream Park, and then made a solid 2017 debut in the Sam F. Davis. He raced mostly on the rail throughout and closed with a rush once he got out to the middle of the track in the lane, just getting up for the Place money in the final strides.

Also coming out of the Sam F. Davis is Wild Shot (5-1), who took on some of the best two-year-olds last year and managed to get into the money in both the (G1) Claiborne Futurity at Keeneland and the (G2) Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill.

The Sam Davis was his first start of 2017. He managed to briefly grab a short lead in the stretch despite racing wide throughout. He eventually tired, however, in the last 100 yards. In his second start since his layoff, there's a good chance he'll move forward and be right in the mix once again.

One of the more experienced runners in the field, Sonic Mule (6-1), also comes from the Pletcher barn. He has finished in the money in every one of his eight lifetime starts, with two of those minor stakes wins. He comes into the Tampa Bay Derby off a third-place run in the (G3) Swale Stakes at Gulfstream where he duelled on the lead throughout, coming up a bit empty in mid-stretch. He'll likely be up on the pace here again, and will try to hang around to pick up a piece.

Mark Casse's State Of Honor (4-1) is also expected to be in the mix. He finished second behind Sonic Mule in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. Just like Sonic Mule, he'll try to carry his speed far enough to once again be in the mix late.

The Tampa Bay Derby goes Saturday, March 11 from Tampa Bay Downs. Post time is 5:27 PM Eastern.

Entries w/ML Odds

1) Tale Of Silence (15-1)

2) The Money Monster (15-1)

3) Basha (12-1)

4) No Dozing (6-1)

5) Tapwrit (3-1)

6) Beasley (9-2)

7) Sonic Mule (6-1)

8) State Of Honor (4-1)

9) Wild Shot (5-1)

10) Zion Valley (50-1)

BABB Picks

#1 - Wild Shot

#2 - Tapwrit

#3 - State Of Honor

#4 - Sonic Mule   

Category : Betting Picks

Tag : Horse Racing , Horse Racing Tips , Tampa Bay Derby

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