Bob Duff | Thu 01/02/2018 - 10:32 EST

Super Bowl Total: What is The Sharp Over/Under Bet?

Super Bowl Total: What is The Sharp Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under Is Toughest Super Bowl Call


Once you've figured out whether the New England Patriots are going to win their record-tying sixth Super Bowl title in Super Bowl LII, or if the Philadelphia Eagles are going to break their Super Bowl maiden, and after you've settled on whether the Pats will cover the spread or not, it's time to move on to the most difficult decision of the three main wagers on the game - should you play the over, or the under? This is going to be your toughest call of all your Super Bowl Sunday wagering, so you'll want to pay attention here. 

Last season, in Super Bowl LI, the over was the call as New England rallied for a 34-28 overtime decision over the Atlanta Falcons. You had the No. 1 offense in the NFL (the Falcons) on the field that day, and you'll also have the No. 1 offense in the NFL on the field this Sunday (the Patriots), so that's something to keep in mind. The over has carried the day in four of the last five Super Bowls. Added together, New England and Philadelphia combined to average 57 points a game this season.

Bovada has set the total on Super Bowl LII at 48.5 points, and the last six times the total for the Super Bowl was a number in the 40s, the over is 5-1. In their previous seven Super Bowls with the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady tandem at the helm, the over was 4-1 when the Patriots won the Super Bowl, and the under is 2-0 when the Patriots lose the Super Bowl, so you may want to cater your total wager on whether you believe New England is going to win or lose on Sunday.

Neither of these teams offer much of a clue as to how Sunday will play out based on their regular-season over/under performances. The Eagles split right down the middle at 8-8, while the Patriots were 7-9. This Super Bowl will feature two of the best scoring defenses in the NFL. The Eagles finished fourth (18.4 points per game), while Patriots were right behind them in fifth (18.5 PPG).

New England hasn't allowed 20 points in a game since Week 15 and have surrendered an average of 17 points per game through two playoff games. You've also got to go back to Week 15 to find a game where the Eagles allowed more than 10 points. Philly allowed just 12.4 points per game at home this season and 23.5 PPG away, the largest disparity in the NFL.


There's also the Nick Foles factor to take into consideration. Since Foles replaced the injured Carson Wentz at quarterback, the Eagles' offense can best be described as inconsistent. Should you be buoyed by the 38 points they put up while dismantling the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game, or put more emphasis on the reality that in the three previous games, the Eagles combined to score 40 points?

You would think that playing indoors would offer more of a chance for points to be put up, but that hasn't proven out in Super Bowl history. In the 15 previous games played in domed stadiums, the total went over just seven times. And the total has gone under in both previous Super Bowls involving the Eagles. New England's 24-21 decision over Philly in Super Bowl XXXIX marked the only time that Brady and the Pats won the Super Bowl and the total was under.

The total has gone over in four of New England's last five postseason games and the last three meetings between the Pats and Eagles all ended up with the total going over.

BABB Pick: Over (48.5)

My Team's Next MatchNew England Patriots

Category : Betting Picks

Tag : Bill Belichick , carson wentz , nfl , nick foles , Super Bowl , tom brady

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