Fri 29/08/2014 - 14:53 EDT

SMU-Baylor Game Has Highest Total Of NCAA Week 1 -- Still Go Over

SMU-Baylor Game Has Highest Total Of NCAA Week 1 -- Still Go Over

If you like offense in college football, then Sunday night's matchup between SMU and No. 10 Baylor in Waco features a total of 74.5, which is by far the highest on the board for any game on the opening weekend. Yet it still might be too low. 

Bears Nearly Unstoppable

The Bears led the nation last year in scoring at better than 50 points per game and they welcome back quarterback Bryce Petty, a top Heisman contender. He led the Big 12 with 4,200 yards with 32 touchdowns last year against only three interceptions. He also led the league with 14 rushing TDs. Petty has perhaps the nation's best group of receivers, led by Antwan Goodley (71 catches, 1,339 yards, 13 touchdowns).

No team plays faster than Coach Art Briles' club. Plus it's the re-opening of McLane Stadium, which got a $260 million facelift.  Baylor has scored 30+ points in 29 of its last 32 games and 40+ points in 25 of those contests. Baylor set an NCAA record in scoring in 2013 with 681 points in 13 games. BU's 52.4 points/game were tied for fourth-most all-time. Baylor led the nation with 29 TDs on drives of one minute or less. BU?had 21 TD drives of 3 plays or fewer. The Bears return a nation's-best 6,319 yards from its 2013 totals.

SMU Can Score, Not Defend

SMU was 5-7 last year and will throw all over the place in Coach June Jones' Run 'N Gun offense or whatever he calls it these days. So while the Mustangs should be able to put up some points, they couldn't stop many people last year. Even Temple scored 49 against SMU in 2013.  SMU lost starting quarterback Garrett Gilbert to graduation after 2013. In his wake, the Mustangs recently announced they would start sophomore quarterback Neal Burcham. The Arkansas native was a four-star prospect coming out of high school, and appeared in four games in 2013.

Baylor has won 10 straight against the Mustangs; the last time SMU beat Baylor was 1986. Baylor is 23-3 at home over the last four seasons and is 19-1 in Waco since 2011. Baylor has won 10 straight at home and has not lost in Waco since Oct. 13, 2012 vs. TCU.

Key trends: Over is 4-0 in Bears last 4 non-conference games. Over is 21-5-1 in Bears last 27 home games. Over is 5-1 in Mustangs last 6 vs. Big 12.

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