Odds to Win The NCAFF Title
Through the first two weeks of the college football season, bettors picking against Alabama have few logical reasons to take a solid stand against the heavy favorite. The Tide rolled Louisville and Arkansas State in its first two contests,then pummeled Ole Missin week 3 for good measure. They have been absolutely dominant since QB Tua Tagovailoa took over in the second half of the national championship game last year.
The idea of Alabama having a dynamic passer with excellent mobility is scary and it's now the current reality. If Tagovailoa stays healthy, it's very difficult to see anyone unseating Alabama barring a major upset.
Here are the current top 5 betting choices:
- Alabama +200
- Clemson +450
- Georgia +700
- Ohio State +700
- Auburn +1200
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Betting Lines Explained
Before digging deeper into the conversation of betting the 2019 national champion, let's quickly explain the proposition itself for newbies. The number next to the team is how much you'd win per hundred dollars wagered. Simple enough.
Newbies may also wonder what is meant by "the line" in sports betting. The line is simply the stated odds. From week to week, the line would be expressed as the number of points one team is favored to win the game by over another. Futures bets feature a wagering event or scenario that happens weeks or months away with the idea that bettors can attain more attractive odds by betting so far in advance.
So which college football team offers the most betting value to win the 2019 National Championship?
It can be easily argued that Alabama is so superior to every team in the country, that +200 represents fair wagering value at this stage in the game. While I certainly cannot begrudge anyone that opinion, let's dig into the matter at hand a bit further.
- Clemson is listed as the second betting choice, and frankly seems uninspiring at +450. The Tigers are an elite college football program of late, but looked very beatable while hanging on to win at Texas A&M in week 2.
- Georgia has another very nice team, but I'll be passing on them as well. Like Clemson, the Bulldogs fell to Bama last year in the postseason. +700 isn't a terrible price, but if I'm going against Alabama, I won't more of a reward.
- Ohio State has looked really good so far this year and isn't a terrible proposition at +700 given the weakness of the Big 10 and the high probability that the Buckeyes cruise to the playoffs.
Oklahoma seems like the ideal value bet at 16/1. The Sooners have maintained their high-powered offense it appears despite the departure of Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield. If Alabama has any apparent Achilles Heel at this point, it could be in its secondary. Pass-happy Oklahoma could challenge the Tide if a big way if that game were to be played at this stage in the season.
The Bottom Line
I can't recommend betting against Alabama, but if you're going to, insist on value. Anyone casting the net on Alabama to win another title has to remember that this is football and that key injuries happen every single Saturday.
Bama is good enough to win with its backup QB Jalen Hurts, but they aren't the dominate team they can be with Tagovailoa under center. If he stays healthy, the rest of college football may simply be playing for runner-up.