NCAAF Picks: Georgia favorites to beat TCU in National Championship game

NCAAF Picks: Georgia favorites to beat TCU in National Championship game

The NCAAF national championship game is finally upon us after a crazy season and two immense semi-finals led to this game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the TCU Horned Frogs.

Georgia went 14-0 for the season with yet another excellent run as they sat at the top of the rankings for nearly the entire year, while TCU pulled together a magnificent run of form to go 13-1 in their Power 5 league.

We'll take a look ahead to the game, break down the best path to victory for both teams and give your our best free betting picks to see if we can start the new year off with some extra cash to spend.

NCAAF National ChampionshipBetOnlineBovada
Georgia Bulldogs-470-500
TCU Horned Frogs+380+360

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Georgia Bulldogs vs TCU Horned Frogs information

  • Monday, January 9th, 2023
  • 7:30 pm ET
  • SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Los Angeles, California
  • Live on ESPN

Georgia route to the final

The Bulldogs have had the perfect season so far, and justified every claim from the pre-season that they would become the champions of the country.

They opened the season with a huge 49-3 win over Oregon, before shutting out Samford 33-0 and beating South Carolina 44-7 in their opening three games.

Georgia's biggest win of the season came in game week 7 when they thumped Vanderbilt 55-0 at Sanford Stadium in front of over 90,000 fans in Atlanta.

After going 12-0 in the regular season they claimed the SEC Championship when they blitzed past LSU at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium with a 50-30 win before their razor-close win on New Year's Eve to get to this game.

They faced off against Ohio State in front of 79,000 fans in the Peach Bowl and claimed a 42-41 win thanks to a missed game-ending Buckeyes field goal.

TCU route to the final

In a crazy season for the Horned Frogs, they managed to go an incredible 12-0 in their regular season which guaranteed them a spot in the playoffs.

They opened their season with big wins over Colorado and Tarleton State with a combined scored of 97-30, before edging out SMU in their next outing 42-34.

TCU rode their luck throughout the season, picking up an overtime win over Oklahoma State in an hugely unexpected result. They picked up a close win over Baylor in game week 11, before their biggest win of the season the following week when they faced off with Iowa State and dominated to a 62-14 win.

They suffered their only defeat of the season immediately after that though in the Big 12 Championship game, as Kansas State claimed a 31-28 win in overtime.

The Horned Frogs' last outing saw them bounce back well though, securing a 51-45 win over Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl to set up this game.

NCAAF picks: Georgia to cover the spread

Georgia has a strong record of not only winning against tough teams this season, but covering against the spread as well. They covered against LSU, Mississippi State, Tennessee, and Oregon this year and will fancy their chances of doing the same here as heavy favorites.

Tennessee and Oregon were better teams than TCU this year, and LSU and Mississippi State were about on par with TCU’s strongest opponents. It would be a real surprise if Georgia weren't able to cover here, never mind if TCU were somehow able to get another shock win.

It is definitely worth noting that Georgia is currently 7-7 against the spread and has failed to cover the last 3 out of 4 games, while the Bulldogs' record against the spread vs non-conference opponents is 1-4.

That would be enough to put you off usually, but there is a big gap between these two sides and Georgia love to put on a show, especially since they're looking to go back-to-back after winning last year 33-18 against the Alabama Crimson Tide.

I like Georgia at -13 to cover against TCU, and I would bet them up to -16.5 to get even more value.

Georgia -13 to beat TCU

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NCAAF picks: Over 63 points

When TCU is involved, there is frequently a good deal of scoring and we can expect even more of that here.

They scored 51 points against a stellar Michigan defense in the Fiesta Bowl, 62 points against Iowa State, 41 points against West Virginia, 43 points against Oklahoma State, and 38 points against Kansas.

But it should be noted that they have also conceded 20 or more points in all but four games they've played this season, including 45 in their last outing against a Michigan side who aren't as good offensively as Georgia.

This is a game where we expect Georgia to jump to an early lead, and in turn that means the Horned Frogs should be aggressive in returning the fire and trying to keep pace.

With TCU clipping at Georgia’s heels and both teams looking to score as often as possible rather than play it safe with offense being their best form of defense, expect this to land comfortably at some point in the fourth quarter.

Over 63 points Georiga vs TCU

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