The NFL is back for Week 7 of the 2023 season as the Kansas City Chiefs play host to the Los Angeles Chargers at the Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs bounced back from defeat in the opening game and have won their last five in a row for a 5-1 record, while the Chargers have a 2-3 record after their bye in week 5.
We'll take a look at the match-up and provide you with our best free NFL betting picks to see if we can earn you some extra cash while you enjoy the action on the field.
|NFL Week 7
|Los Angeles Chargers
|Kansas City Chiefs
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Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers information
- Sunday, 22 October 2023
- Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
- 16:25 ET kick-off
Season so far
The reigning Super Bowl champions the Kansas City Chiefs stepped into the 2023 season with a trip to face off with the Detroit Lions, with many expecting a rout, but eventually suffering a shock come-from-behind defeat despite having led 14-7 at half-time.
Kansas bounced back in week 2 though against the Jacksonville Jaguars, putting in a solid display of defensive strength and efficient offense to claim a 17-9 win and get back on track in their championship defense.
In week 3 they showed their true selves as Mahomes threw three passing touchdowns to help the Chiefs romp to a 41-10 victory, including a 27-0 second quarter. They followed that with a 23-20 win over the New York Jets in week 4, before claiming a dominant win over the Minnesota Vikings in week 5 with a 27-20 scoreline.
Last time out they picked up a comfortable 19-8 win in one of the most boring games of the season so far against the Denver Broncos to move to 5-1 for the campaign.
The Chargers on the other hand have had a really mixed start to their season, and currently have a losing record.
They opened their season with a close fought 36-34 defeat to the Miami Dolphins in week 1, in a game where they were able to go close but just not close enough. Week 2 wasn't any better for them as they went up against the Tennessee Titans and fell to a 27-24 overtime defeat.
Week 3 was more successful thanks to a 28-24 win over the Minnesota Vikings, where a first-quarter shutout helped them to victory as they scored a touchdown in all four quarters, before week 4 saw them beat the Las Vegas Raiders 24-17 thanks to a dominant first-half which meant their scoreless second half didn't matter.
Last time out they went up against the Dallas Cowboys and suffered another close loss 17-20, with Dallas scoring 10 points in the final quarter to claim the win.
NFL Picks: Chargers +6 @ -110
Winners of five in a row, the Chiefs look back to form after dropping their season opener. Patrick Mahomes is still the catalyst for the Chiefs’ Super Bowl hopes, but their defense is playing it's part too and is a big reason for their success.
After six games, Kansas City is second in average points allowed (14.7) and sixth in average yards allowed (284). They have yet to give up more than 21 points in a game and are still scoring relatively freely.
No stranger to close games, Los Angeles is good enough to keep pace with Kansas City. But the Chargers’ inability to close out one-score games is telling and ultimately it could let them down when it comes to picking up the win on their record.
Nobody seems to play to their competition quite like Los Angeles. All five of the Chargers’ games have been decided by one score, and that comes down to the excellent coaching of Brandon Staley.
The Chargers are now 21-19 in three seasons under Staley but just 6-10 in games decided by three points or fewer. Both of last season’s losses to Kansas City came by a field goal. Them winning the game is a long shot, but taking them to cover the spread looks like a great value bet here.
NFL Picks: Over 47.5 total match points @ -110
Five of the last six matchups between these two teams have gone Over this total, including both last season.
Although the Chiefs have yet to kick it into gear offensively, they’re still averaging a healthy 24.5 points per game. The Chargers have been a tick more explosive at 25.4 points per game. That alone should see them hit the over, but Kansas are good enough defensively to keep the Chargers below their usual amount.
Given the talent at quarterback, it’s no wonder this is expected to be a shootout. It’s the second-highest projected total at the moment behind the Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles (52 points).
With Mahomes on the field the Chiefs have the ability to score often and with the Chargers running everyone close so far this season, they'll fancy their chances of keeping up. Back the Over to land once again for great entertainment and a great value bet.