Joey Chestnut heavy favorite to win Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest 2023

Joey Chestnut heavy favorite to win Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest 2023

America's birthday is upon us once again, and that means it's time for Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest in 2023.

The competition began back in 2000 and since then we have seen the legendary Joey Chestnut run rampant and dominate the professional eating space like nobody before him, winning 14 of the last 15 editions of this competition.

Will he do it again in 2023 or will someone else step up to stop his dominant run? What other bets are there to take advantage of on July 4th? We'll take a look and provide you with our best free betting picks to see if we can earn you some extra cash for the holiday.

Hot Dog Eating Contest 2023BetOnlineBetUSBovada
Joey Chestnut-2500-5000-5000
Geoffrey Esper+800+900+1000
Nick Wehry+1200+1400+2000
Darron Breedon+1400+1600+1800
James Webb+2500+2200+2500
Gideon Oji+2000+4000+3500

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest 2023 information

  • Tuesday, July 4th 2023
  • 12:00pm ET
  • Streamed live on FuboTV
  • Watch live on ESPN2

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest 2023 Betting picks

Joey Chestnut to win - (-2500)

There is no GOAT in a sport more unanimous then Joey Chestnut in the competitive eating space, and there is a reason why his odds are so high.

He’s been untouchable in 14 of the past 15 events and in seven straight, holding all the records for this competition and dominating this space for as long as anyone can remember.

Chestnut has lost before, and anything can happen but the last time he lost was in 2015 when Matt Stonie scoffed 62 in ten minutes. Chestnut has only ever gone lower than that on four occasions in career, and got 63 in 2022's edition.

Having Chestnut to win the competition is as much of a banker as you can imagine, but his odds of -2500 are as low as they've been in a while. He's the obvious choice to win and our pick to be victorious again, but the value is obviously not the best for this straight win market.

Joey Chestnut to win Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest

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Geoffrey Esper to win without Joey Chestnut - (-250)

The second-place finisher in 2022 was Geoffrey Esper, who ate 47 hot dogs. The best market to bet on when it comes to the winner is when you take Chestnut out of the running, which makes Esper the favorite to come out on top.

Although Chestnut has a ton of different eating records, Esper has a good amount as well, including but not exclusively:

  • 36 4.5oz Brats in 10 Minutes
  • 83 Slices of Pizza in 10 Minutes
  • 95 2oz Tamales in 10 Minutes
  • 281 Hooters Wings in 10 Minutes
  • 293 Jack’s Donut Holes in 8 Minutes

Geoffrey can eat plenty in a short amount of time, but coming up against Chestnut is just an impossible task to the mere mortal. Hot dogs aren’t typically his game, but he does have a few brats records to his name, which is similar and could use that to secure himself a win excluding Chestnut from the market.

His own record for hot dogs is 51, but bearing in mind he came second with 47 last year he may not even need to break that record to match the achievement.

If Chestnut stumbles at all, Esper immediately becomes a heavy favorite to win. The value is on backing the 47-year-old without 'Jaws', and it's a great bet to do.

Geoffrey Esper to win Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest without Joey Chestnut

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See below the top sportsbooks where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:

Joey Chestnut under 73.5 hot dogs eaten - (-135)

When there is no handicap bet on Chestnut to win overall, the best value comes by backing the number of hot dogs he will eat individually in the ten minutes.

Chestnut fell below 70 dogs for the first time since 2014 last year and he went well below the spread of 73.5, which is what it's set at yet again.

It's fair to question whether Chestnut has peaked in his career as he is now 39-years-old and it's got to be tough to find motivation after dominating a competition like this year after year.

Betting the over is obviously the more fun bet to do, but betting the under is the smarter play and seems far more likely. There's solid value in it too, so go with that.

Under 73.5 Joey Chestnut total hot dogs eaten

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James Webb top 3 finish - (+200)

While Chestnut should cruise to another victory and Esper is the man to back as the runner-up there is decent value in backing Webb to finish in the Top 3.

The Aussie ended up in third place last year by putting down 41 wieners and that was his first year taking part in the competition.

You would expect that he now has a better idea of the techniques and timings of the competition, and can put that to use this year in his second attempt.

Webb is targeting 50 hot dogs for his encore and if he hits that milestone he could potentially earn himself second, although Chestnut could inhale that amount in his sleep for the win. Going safe by backing for third place instead of second still has great value and makes for a good bet.

James Webb to finish Top 3 in Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest

Joey Chestnut to beat his personal best: No - (-350)

Chestnut has finished at least 75 dogs in two of the past three years, but last year saw a big drop-off when it comes to the number he could take down.

Some have suggested that his battle with a protestor early on could have been the difference though rather than a drop in ability, and some believe he is going to push for the record to prove he's still got it.

Breaking the record would purely be a personal feat for him though as he could eat far less and still win so it all comes down to his motivation on the day. Probability says he won't do it and that's the safe bet, but nobody would be surprised if he did.

No Joey Chestnut to beat his personal best