Germany take on Mexico at the Olimpiyskiy Stadium in Moscow on Sunday 17th May at 16:00 local time and it will be the first time we have seen the Germans in a competitive game wince the World Cup qualifying campaign ended.
Mexico may have a strong World Cup heritage but that will count for nothing when they come up against the might of reigning champions Germany. Germany are priced at -225 to beat Mexico, with a Mexico win available at +650 and the draw being +350. Germany brushed Mexico aside 4-1 in the FIFA Confederations Cup in June 2017 and it would not surprise us to see a similar scoreline when the two sides meet again.
Backing Germany with a -1 spread at -130 looks to be a steal; if you think it will be the same 4-1 score Bovada will give you odds of +2200. Mexico have enough talent to worry the Germans, yet the +120 available for Germany-Germany in the Half Time/ Full Time market looks like superb value.
Germany vs Mexico Key Bites
The current World Cup champions have played friendlies against England, France, Spain and Brazil and came away with three draws and a narrow 1-0 defeat (to Brazil) but the masters of tournament soccer should be firing on all cylinders by the time the World Cup kicks off.
Germany have not finished lower than third-place in the previous four World Cups and it would take a brave bettor to bet against them continuing this impressive record.
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Germany sailed through qualification for the 2018 World Cup with 10 victories from their 10 games and became on the second team in history to achieve this after Spain in 2010. Although the Germans tend not to play with a traditional out and out striker, their entire squad has the ability to score goals.
No fewer than 21 different players scored for Germany during qualification and they racked up an impressive 43 goals between them. If you manage to stop the likes of Thomas Muller and Sandro Wagner from scoring, there are several other Germans queuing up to put the ball in the net.
Bovada make Germany the joint favorites with Brazil with odds of +400, this despite a poor run of form during the Germans’ warm-up matches. Draws against England, Spain and Brazil were followed by back-to-back defeats at the hands of Brazil and Austria then a 2-1 win over Saudi Arabia.
The Germans are usually rock solid in defense yet they have managed only one clean sheet in their previous eight games and have allowed football minnows such as Azerbaijan, Northern Ireland and Saudi Arabia to score against them.
It is worth noting that the Germans are experts when it comes to tournament football and you can bet your bottom dollar that they will be the team to beat once the referee blows the whistle and the 2018 World Cup begins for Die Mannschaft.
You should also be aware that Germany hammered Mexico 4-1 at the 2017 Confederations Cup despite fielding what would be considered a second string team.
Mexico coach Juan Carlos Osorio will have to get his tactics spot on if his team are to have any chance of avoiding defeat in their opening group game of the 2018 World Cup in Russia. Osorio is always thorough in his planning but sometimes that planning goes wrong, as was evident by Mexico’s 4-1 defeat to Germany in 2017 and a 7-0 mauling by Chile.
The Mexicans have been struggling for form during the warm-up matches. There were wins against Poland, Bosnia, Scotland and Iceland, the latter being a 3-0 demolition, draws against Belgium and Wales plus defeats to Croatia and Denmark.
A worrying statistic for fans of Mexico is their lack of goals over the past 12 months. While they managed to score three goals in games against El Salvador, Belgium and Iceland, 10 of Mexico’s previous 12 games have finished with under 2.5 goals with eight of those having fewer than 1.5 goals.
Mexico do have the players to trouble Germany, but it depends if they turn up on the day. In Javier Hernandez they have a superb poacher who only needs half a chance, while Hirving Lozano enjoyed a superb debut season for PSV Eindhoven.
Germany should be too strong for Mexico, even taking into consideration Germany’s patchy recent form. The three draws Germany were held to during their warm-up matches came against England, France and Brazil and Mexico are not as good as any of those sides.
Bovada prices a Germany win with a -0.5 spread at +105 and this looks like a great bet to make and much better value than the -210 on a straight win. Mexico will likely try to keep this game tight and hope for a draw, instead targeting the weaker teams in the group, but if you invite the Germans to attack they will eventually destroy you.
Consider taking Germany and under 3.5 goals at +110 if you want something slightly different to bet on.
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