Fri 24/06/2016 - 19:17 EDT

Euro 2016 Knockout Stage Gameday Analysis

Euro 2016 Knockout Stage Gameday Analysis

Euro 2016 Round Of 16 Game Odds & Preview 

By Paul Seaton

Italy (+320) vs. Spain (+110) 12 noon ET

Two giants of the modern game meet in Saint-Denis in the biggest stadium at Euro 2016. Monday will see some of the most passionate ones at fever pitch when 1968 European Champions Italy takes on three-time winners Spain, who have won both the two previous championships.

Italy cruised through to the knockout phase as the only team in the tournament who had won their group after just two matches. They beat Belgium 2-0 in a stunning performance of passion and unity which hints at what Chelsea fans can expect from their team under departing Italian coach Antonio Conte next season.

That 2-0 victory was followed up on by a victory against Sweden, who were edged out 1-0. Although Italy stumbled to a late 1-0 defeat against Ireland in their final game, it was a meaningless game in which they rested eight players from their starting line-up, with even Gigi Buffon given a night off between the sticks.

Spain, on the other hand, had a disastrous end to their qualification for this round, which had looked routine when they beat the Czech Republic 1-0 and Turkey 3-0 in their first two games. Up 1-0 on a Croatia side missing Luka Modric, Spain conceded a goal before half and missed a penalty before an Ivan Perisic scored the winner that sent Croatia into top spot. 

With Spain favorites to win the game in 90 minutes at +110, Italy are a surprising +320 to progress in regulation time. We think Italy may just do that, as rested and ready as they are. Spain are under pressure, having won back-to-back European Championships. The over 2.5 goals market is swollen at odds of +210 and we like the idea of betting on it.

Italian striker Eder is +2800 to net the only goal of the game in a 1-0 victory and we think that could be a valuable outside bet.

England (-190) vs. Iceland (+650) 3pm ET

England go into this knockout round almost with nothing to win. Hounded by sections of their own press, they will be expected to routinely dispatch a dangerous opponent in never-say-die surprise package Iceland, who triumphed over Austria to seal second spot in the topsy-turvy Group F.

Iceland play as a team and will likely try take advantage of the counter-attack against England, a formation and style that has proven successful by both Russia and Slovakia in Group B.

England only beat Wales thanks to a last-minute Daniel Sturridge effort, but none of their strikers have set fire to the tournament.

Iceland have been resolute, but also look dynamite on the break, as they showed in their incredible 2-1 triumph over Austria: 

Iceland will be dangerous, but we think England will just about get the job done. Wayne Rooney has a great record in International football for England and is great value at +500 to score first and +300 to score.

But perhaps Gylfi Sigurdsson to net first (from the spot - he is the designated penalty taker for Iceland) and a 1-1 tie after normal time is the best bet, a stunning +5000 price. England are +575 to win in extra time, compared to -190 for the 90-minute victory.

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