Darley Alcibiades Stakes 2018 Picks
Named for the winner of the 1930 Kentucky Oaks, the (G1) Darley Alcibiades Stakes is always a good preview of some of the fillies with aspirations of winning the Oaks next May. The second big stakes race at Keeneland Race Course on Friday, the Alcibiades is also a "Win and You're In' race for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filles race on November 2 at Churchill Downs.
The 2018 Darley Alcibiades carries a total purse of $400,000, and has drawn a full field of 14 two-year-old fillies faced with racing 1 1/16 miles on the Keeneland dirt.
The lukeward 3-1 morning line favorite is Restless Rider for trainer Ken McPeek, who started her career with two consecutive wins including a minor stake win by 11 lengths at Churchill last June. After two months off she came back to run second behind a 16-1 longshot in the (G1) Spinaway Stakes.
While she likely needed that race to get back into top form, she doesn’t appear to be the fastest horse in the race, and at low odds is very beatable.
- 01Casse Always A Threat at Keeneland
- 02Looking For A Live Longshot
- 03Calculating The Cost Of A Trifecta Box
Casse Always A Threat at Keeneland
Trainer Mark Casse has won this race three times in the past six years, including 2017, and he’s back this year with Florida-bred Catherinethegreat, picked as the third choice in the ML odds at 5-1. If you can get it, that’s a solid price for a filly that wired the field to win a very tough (G3) Schuylerville Stakes two starts back by more than four lengths.
Last time out, Catherinethegreat was a deceptive ninth in the Spinaway, a race where she was in contention before being pinched off at the top of the stretch drive and was never able to regain her momentum.
If you’re looking for a filly that has been showing steady improvement Lady TNT (4-1 in the ML odds) has been significantly faster in each of her three races, leading up to a win last out at Churchill Downs by 6 1/2 lengths. Look for her to be up setting the pace early, but she’s trying stakes racing for the first time and the toughest competiton so far in her career.
Looking For A Live Longshot
In a race that feels like a longshot could come in and steal it, Kim K warrants some consideration at odds of 12-1. She only has two lifetime starts to her name, but last out took a big step forward to win the Debutante Stakes at Los Alamitos in a final time that puts her ahead of most of the field here.
The 2018 Darley Alcibiades goes Friday, October 5 from Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky, with an expected post time of 5:30 PM Eastern.
Darley Alcibiades Stakes Picks
- 1) #9 – Catherinethegreat (5-1)
- 2) #5 – Kim K (12-1)
- 3) #3 – Restless Rider (3-1)
- 4) #8 – Lady TNT (4-1)
Calculating The Cost Of A Trifecta Box
Hitting a trifecta in a wide-open race like this one is a bettor’s dream. To calculate the cost of a four-horse trifecta box, you simply take the number of horses that can finish first, times the number of horses that can finish second, times the number of horses that can finish third.
So: 4x3x2=24. A $1 trifecta box with four horses would cost $24 at Bovada or one of these other top-rated racebooks.