Colombia vs Japan World Cup Odds
My Team's Next MatchColombia
Colombia face Japan at the Mordovia Arena in Saransk at 13:00 local time on Tuesday 19th June.
Colombia vs Japan Prediction
Over 2.5 goals +130
It must be frustrating supporting Colombia because they seem to have a squad of players that has a mixture of grit and flair yet they always seem to struggle when push comes to shove and the pressure is on. Colombia reached the quarter-finals at the 2014 World Cup and will be hopeful of a repeat performance four years on, especially as Group H is one of the weaker groups in the tournament.
Colombia should defeat Japan and the -140 odds Bovada is offering reflects this. If you fancy a punt on Japan you’ll get odds of +450 with the draw at +110. Japan have some decent players in their squad but the majority play in the Japanese league which is nowhere near as physical as this team will face at the World Cup; it also lacks quality.
Qualification games involving Colombia averaged 2.22 goals per game with games involving Japan averaging 2.7 goals per game. This leads us to wanting to back the over 2.5 goals market at +130. This means we also like the look of a 2-1 Colombia win at +750, too. The Japanese are likely to sit back and will attack Colombia on the break because they will see Senegal as an easier target in a later game. This is a credible tactic, but employing it could allow the Colombian forwards plenty of space and that could lead to Japan being punished.
Colombia vs Japan Key Bites
- James Rodriguez is key to Colombia’s success
- Colombia have been inconsistent for the past 12 months
- Radamel Falcao is set to make his World Cup debut at 32 years old
- Japan’s manager has only had three games in charge of his team
- Shinji Kagawa, Keisuke Honda and Shinji Okazaki are Japan’s best three players
The game ended 4-1 in Colombia’s favor the last time these two teams met, which was at the 2014 World Cup. It was 1-1 at half time before Colombia took the lead in the 55th minute and scored again on 63. Two goals in the 82nd and 89th minute flattered Colombia a little but they were deserving of their win.
Japan tried to play possession soccer in that game and it backfired. We would expect them to sit back and soak up pressure this time around; will that work in Colombia’s favor?
Colombia vs Japan Betting Trends
- Colombia has played Japan three times previously, most recently at the 2014 World Cup where they won 4-1.
- This is the sixth FIFA World Cup Colombia has qualified for.
- Colombia reached the quarter finals of the 2014 World Cup where they lost 2-1 to Brazil.
- Colombia were the last team from South America to qualify for the 2018 World Cup.
- Colombia were +4000 to win the World Cup before the tournament started.
- Colombia were ranked fifth in the world by FIFA before the qualifiers. They are now as low as 16th in the rankings.
- Colombia qualified via the CONMEBOL qualifiers, finishing fourth with a record of won seven, drawn five and lost six of their 18 games. They scored 21 goals and conceded 19 during those matches.
- Carlos Bacca and Edwin Cardona eac scored three goals in qualifying and were Colombia’s top scorers.
- Colombia’s World Cup finals record reads seven wins, two draws ad nine defeats from 18 games They have scored 26 goals and conceded 27 during those matches.
- This is the sixth consecutive World Cup finals Japan has qualified for.
- Japan reached the Round of 16 in both 2002 and 2010.
- Japan were +20000 to win the World Cup before the tournament started.
- Japan qualified top of their group in the AFC Third Round. Japan won six, drew two and lost two of their 10 matches. They scored 17 goals and conceded 10 during those games.
- Japan’s record at the World Cup is played 17, won four, drawn four and lost nine. They have scored 14 goal and conceded 22 during those matches.
- Takuma Asana and Yuya Kubo both scored twice during the final qualification round and were Japan’s top scorers.
- Japan sealed qualification with a 2-0 win over Australia with Leeds United’s Yosuke Ideguchi scoring a thunderous goal in the 82nd minute.
- Japan has lost almost half of the 109 games it has played against teams under UEFA’s jurisdiction.
Colombia vs Japan World Cup Preview
Colombia reached the quarter-finals of the 2014 World Cup and this has raised hopes of a deep run in the tournament in Russia. Whether that happens is another story because the Colombians have been inconsistent for the past year, if not more.
Four wins, six draws and four defeats is Colombia’s record over their past 13 games. Victories such as 4-0 against Cameroon, and 3-2 against France, plus a 1-1 draw and 2-2 draw against Brazil and Spain show this team can rub shoulders with the best. 0-0 draws against both Australia and Egypt are more worrisome.
The Colombian starting XI is littered with big names who play for Europe’s elite clubs. Central defensive pairing Yerry Mina and Cristian Zapata ply their trade at Barcelona and Milan, Juan Cuadrado and James Rodriguez play in midfield for Juventus and Real Madrid, while Radamel Falcao and Carlos Bacca are forwards for Monaco and Milan.
Rodriguez was the 2014 World Cup Golden Boot winner thanks to scoring six goals in five games. While he is unlikely to be the top scorer this time around, he is a vital cog in the Colombian team and the South Americans need him in top form if they are to repeat the heroics of four years ago.
Japan go into the 2018 World Cup with a coach who has only had three warm-up games to get to know his squad, which is far from ideal preparation.
The Japanese sacked Vahid Halilhodzic despite guiding Japan to World Cup qualification, the Japanese Football Association were disappointed with the 1-1 draw with Mali and the 2-1 defeat to Ukraine so relieved the boss of his duties.
Akira Nishino took over the reins and has only had three games to settle on his 23 man squad. His Japan team lost 2-0 to Ghana, lost 2-0 to Switzerland and then beat Paraguay 4-2. He needs to focus on what Japan is good at and play to his men’s strengths.
The squad has some players who are established in major European club teams. Shinji Kagawa has won league titles in Germany with Borussia Dortmund and in England with Manchester United, while Shinji Okazaki is a Premier League winner with Leicester City and is Japan’s main goal threat.
Japan is most likely to line up in a 4-3-3 formation that has two defensive midfielders in Hotaru Yamaguchi and Makoto Hasebe with Kagawa acting as a catalyst in the middle of the park. Genki Haraguchi and Keisuke Honda, formerly of AC Milan, will likely partner Okazaki in attack.
It is surprising to see Colombia priced at -155 for this encounter as we believe they should be much shorter simply because Japan simply do not look ready for a World Cup tournament. If the best Colombian players hit form in their opening game this should be one of the easiest three points the team receives. If they do not, the +265 on the draw looks decent.
Bovada price a 2-0 Colombia victory at +650 and that looks incredible value. This is the same odds as a 1-1 draw, which shows the inconsistency of the Colombians.
Category : Betting Picks
Tag : FIFA World Cup
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