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College Football Week 8 Predictions
I'm a big believer in understanding trends and betting what you are most familiar with. It makes sense in stocks and it makes sense when handicapping sports.
Over the last two weeks, I've zeroed in on a few angles such as Kent State's dismal offense, Florida State's upside, and a Purdue squad that is still flying under-the-radar.
This week, I'm all about the totals Here are three over/unders I'll play to keep the profit train rolling:
Syracuse (+16.5) @ Miami (-16.5) O/U: 59.5
A few things don't make sense about this line, and that will surely be the betting public's initial response after Syracuse (4-3) just beat #2 Clemson on national television last Friday night.
Miami (5-0) stayed unbeaten with a come-from-behind 25-24 tally over Georgia Tech after beating Florida State in similar style two weeks ago. My initial feeling was to take the Orangemen plus 16.5, but I hate when plays seem too obvious. Instead, I'll side with the premise that this game will feature scoring and lots of it from both sides.
Wake Forest (+6.5) @ Georgia Tech (+6.5) O/U: 48
These are two sneaky good ACC teams. Georgia Tech (3-2) led both Tennessee and Miami by multiple scores and in the fourth quarter in their two losses this season while Wake (4-2) suffered respectable losses to Clemson and Florida State in its only two blemishes.
The feeling here is that Georgia Tech is the slightly better team, but the line looks about right. That said, I'm expecting a game where both teams play good assignment football and there are few big plays. There will be some points scored here, but 48 of them seems too many in a game marked by running plays and sound tackling.
Kentucky (+11.5) @ Mississippi State (-11.5) O/U: 54.5
Despite being 5-1, Kentucky is not a good football team - a point Vegas seems to fully understand with this whopping 11.5 point-spread. Mississippi State is good enough to get the cover in this one, but I like the total even more. The Bulldogs will play sound defense against Kentucky's ball control offense, making this a snooze fest for much of the game. In short, I don't see enough scoring from either squad to justify the 54.5. Under like thunder!
Louisville (+7) @ Florida State (-7) O/U: 59
The verdict is in on this Louisville team. They are a train wreck defensively. The Cards gave up 45 points to an offensively inept Boston College team last week, losing its second straight game. Louisville (4-3) can still score in bunches with Heisman winner Lamar Jackson at the controls, so this game should feature plenty of TD's. Florida State's offensive problems are pretty much a moot point going against this defense as every Power 5 team the Cards have faced this year has managed at least 28 points. On the flip side, Louisville has scored at least 35 against each Power 5 opponent except for Clemson (21).
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