Wed 06/12/2017 - 06:39 EST

Clemson Odds To Win The National Football Championship in 2018

Clemson Odds To Win The National Football Championship in 2018

Analyzing Clemson's Stock

Before the season, Clemson could be had at around 20/1 (+2000) odds at most major sportsbooks to win the national title. When the Tigers stifled Auburn and crushed Louisville early in the season, their stock soared, but came plummeting back to Earth after the loss at Syracuse checking in around 9/1 (+900). In November, the Tigers kept winning, but could still be had around 7/1 (+700) for most of the month. 

Those odds might provide some context and perspective, but all that really matters now from a gambling standpoint is where they stand at the moment. Heading into the playoffs, the job of selecting a national champion in the futures market comes down to picking a team to win two games. Two very difficult, high-stakes games. Listed at +250 by Bovada and several other major offshore sites, Clemson is the clear second-choice behind their first round opponent Alabama to take home the title despe the fact that the Tigers are the higher-seeded team.


Playoff Odds


The Breakdown

  • Clemson (12-1) is fueled by a dominating defensive line and has done little wrong as a team this year save for the puzzling loss to a Syracuse squad that fnished the season with a losing record.
  • Clemson matches up better than anyone in the nation against an athletic and physical team like Alabama and seem to be getting slightly disrespected by the oddsmakers as two-point underdogs to the Crimson Tide. 
  • The Tigers head into their bowl preparation month a focused and confident squad after blasting top ten opponent Miami 38-3 in the ACC Title game.
  • This team seems to have discovered its offensive identity behind first-year QB Kelly Bryant and that's a scary thought given how gifted this team is on the defensive side of the ball.

Fair Value?

Irrespective of handicapping Clemson versus Alabama in the first round of the playoffs and their chances against the winner of the Oklahoma/Georgia game, taking +250 on Clemson to win the title violates the laws of good common sense.

The reasoning is simple. Let's say a bettor likes Clemson to beat Alabama in the first round. Great. Given that Clemson is the underdog in this game, you can find the Tigers on the moneyline for around +105 at most major sportsbooks. In taking the moneyline in the Alabama game instead of the futures bet, the bettor can put some money back in his pocket without extending into the second game and still wouldn't risk any juice. Here are the outcomes for a $100 bettor deciding whether to bet Clemson to win the championship or just bet them to beat Alabama.

Clemson to win the title (+250)

*Risk $100 to win $250

Extending this scenario of betting the moneyline in Game 1, Clemson will likely be favored against either Georgia or Oklahoma in Game 2. No sweat; let's bet individually again. Note this time, we will be playing essentially risk free. Assuming we won the $100 ML bet in game 1, we've now got $105 in profit to wager on game 2. Looking ahead, Clemson would probably be around a 3-point favorite against either Georgia or Oklahoma. At this point, we are playing with house money and can use our $105 profit to play Clemson against the spread. 

Clemson moneyline against Alabama (+105)

*Risk $100 to win $105

If Clemson were to win the championship game and cover a small pointspread, we'd net a profit of exactly $205 as opposed to making $250 by taking Clemson +250 to win the championship before the first round of the playoffs. A bettor would make a little more cash by playing the futures bet before game 1, but there's much more risk involved because winning game 1 via a ML bet allows the player to wager risk free in Game 2. 

Clemson -110 ATS in Game 2 (-110)

*Risk $110 to win $100

At the end of the day, Clemson looks like a solid pick to repeat as national champions, but be savvy how you bet them.  

Category : Betting Picks

Tag : College Football

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