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Bovada Horse Racing Futures Watch: Epsom Derby And Oaks
Epsom Future Bets Preview
Several of the top runners in contention for both races appear on the Bovada horse racing futures list for the 1000 and 2000 Guineas races, which are set to be run one month earlier. In comparing the posted odds for the Guineas with the Derby and Oaks, it's interesting to note that in some cases the odds differ on the same horses quite a bit.
While this indicates a chance to find excellent value in future bets on these horses, the big factor is in trying to determine which horses are going to be able to handle the distance, as both The Derby and The Oaks are run at 1 1/2 miles, a half-mile further than they'll be asked to go in the two Guineas races.
The Derby 2018 Contenders
Topping the futures list for both the 2000 Guineas and The Derby is Saxon Warrior who is undefeated in three lifetime starts, and has a Group 1 win to his name in 2017. But whereby in the 2000 Guineas he's co-favored at 7-1, here he's a much lower 4-1. While he's a very talented colt, that seems a bit low for a colt who has yet to run beyond a mile, and doesn't necessarily have a ton of distance success showing in his pedigree.
Just below him, however, we find The Pentagon at 10-1. While he was only third last out behind Saxon Warrior, he does have a pair of wins to his name in four starts, and perhaps more significantly he's from the star sire Galileo, who has no problem producing winners that can get a distance of ground, including such big names in 2017 as Capri, who won the Irish Derby at 1 1/2 miles, and the St. Leger Stakes at more than 1 3/4 miles. He's also the sire of Highland Reel, who won the 2017 Coronation Cup at Epsom at 1 1/2 miles.
Another Galileo colt is Flag Of Honour, right now listed in the future bets at 25-1. While his young career has been a bit erratic, with two wins and two out-of-the money finishes, his last effort catches the eye as he won at nine furlongs after leading early, dropping back in the pack through the mid-point of the race and then coming back on to take over inside the last three furlongs and win by a comfortable 1 3/4 lengths.
The Oaks 2018 Contenders
Turning to the upcoming crop of three-year-old fillies listed as possible starters for The Oaks, we find a bit different sitution than in The Derby/2000 Guineas futures, in that while Clemmie is a heavy 3-1 favorite to top the field in the 1000 Guineas, where she'll have to handle a lot more distance in The Oaks she's no better than third choice at 12-1. She's another by Galileo, but at the same time her dam, while a succesful runner in her own right, was a pure sprinter who never won beyond five furlongs.
Leading The Oaks futures at 5-1 odds is Happily, who shipped to the US following a pair of Group 1 wins to contest the 2017 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. She was sent off as the favorite in the field of 14, but whether it was a case of not taking to the firm turf at Del Mar, or just not liking to travel, she ran very poorly and wound up last.
A winner of three-of-four to start her career, and runner-up in the other race, is the French filly Laurens, listed here at 14-1. She has shown steady improvement as she's moved up in class, and last out captured a Group 1 test at Newmarket, taking the field wire-to-wire and then digging in late to win by a nose. That was her second consecutive win at one mile, so the question is if she can go further. If you believe yes, then she's a very live long shot.
Keep track of all the top contenders for the the Epsom Derby and the Epsom Oaks as we move into the new year and the spring racing season, and check back every week for updates on all of Bovada's future bets on the biggest international horse races.
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