Brent Sedo | Sat 10/03/2018 - 13:09 EST

2018 Tampa Bay Derby Odds, Picks

2018 Tampa Bay Derby Odds, Picks
Of three Kentucky Derby qualifying races to be run in Saturday, the (G2) Tampa Bay Derby sets up as the best betting race. With the scratch of two top contenders, the 1 1/16 mile run in the Tampa Bay dirt course has drawn a field of nine entries, all vying for a share of the $400,000 purse.

Tampa Bay Derby Preview and Odds

In addition to the prize money, the Tampa Bay Derby also offers qualifying points for the 2018 Kentucky Derby on a 50-20-10-5 scale. Two of the top contenders, Free Drop Billy and Enticed, were also entered in the (G3) Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct Race Track and will run in that event on Saturday instead.

Withe absence of those two, favored status in the race goes to Flameaway, listed at 3-1 in the morning line. An Ontario-bred colt for trainer Mark Casse, he has shown to be a uniquely versatile runner, having won at the graded-stakes and stakes level on both dirt and turf courses, after scoring his maiden win first time out on the all-weather track at Woodbine. 

Most recently he won the (G3) Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay at 1 1/16 miles, taking the field gate-to-wire and fending off the challenge of the very highly regarded Kentucky Derby contender Catholic Boy. He also took the (G3) Dixiana Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland Race course last October, prior to running eighth in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He comes into the Tampa Bay Derby on a two-race winning streak, and you can expect that he will be battling on the lead right from the gate once again.

Untamed Domain Makes Switch from Turf to Dirt

An interesting option in the field is Untamed Domain (6-1), given that all of his previous six starts have been on the turf. He’s been quite successful as a turf runner, finishing in the money in five of those six races, with two wins and a runner-up finish in the BC Juvenile Turf at odds of 13-1. He made his 2018 debut by running third in the (G3) Dania Beach Stakes at Gulfstream over one mile, and now gets to stretch out a bit. That should be to his advantage, and while his dam was a turf runner, his sire was 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom, giving him a solid dirt pedigree to draw on. 

Consistantly competitive, Tiz Mischief offers good value on the bottom of exotic bets at odds of 8-1. After getting his maiden win in his third lifetime start, he has since twice run at the Grade 2 stakes level, finishing second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill, and third – although 13 lengths behind the winner – in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream. Look for him to be coming late from off the pace.

Rounding out the top four in a fairly tough field, Vino Rosso (4-1) already has an allowance-level win on the Tampa Bay dirt. He next tried graded-stakes company and was right in the mix at the wire for the Sam F. Davis, where he finished third, just over a length back of winner Flameaway and 3/4 of a length behind runner-up Catholic Boy. He’s likely to settle just off the pace in the early going and try to run them down as they move through the stretch.

The Tampa Bay Derby goes Saturday, March 10 from Tampa Bay Downs in Florida. It’s race #11 of 12 on a card that includes two other graded-stakes races, including the (G2) Florida Oaks, which is a qualifying race for the 2018 Kentucky Oaks. Expected post time for the Tampa Bay Derby is 5:20 PM Eastern.

Entries w/ ML Odds

  1. Arazi Like Move (50-1)
  2. Tiz Mischief (8-1)
  3. Vino Rosso (4-1)
  4. Grandpa Knows Best (30-1)
  5. Flameaway (3-1)
  6. Enticed (6-1)
  7. Free Drop Billy (7-2) 
  8. World Of Trouble (5-1)
  9. Untamed Domain (6-1)
  10. Quip (20-1)
  11. Caloric (50-1)

Tampa Bay Derby Picks

  • 1) #5 – Flameaway
  • 2) #9 – Untamed Domain
  • 3) #3 – Vino Rosso
  • 4) #2- Tiz Mischief         

If you can’t be at Tampa Bay Downs to catch a great afternoon of live racing, you can still bet the full day’s card, and all the other qualifying races for the 2018 Kentucky Derby, with an account at Bovada’s top-ranked online racebook. 

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Category : Betting Picks

Tag : Bovada , Horse Racing

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