Sat 21/04/2018 - 05:23 EDT

2018 Kentucky Derby Contenders: Magnum Moon

2018 Kentucky Derby Contenders: Magnum Moon

Magnum Moon on the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard

After making his career debut in mid-January, Todd Pletcher-trained Magnum Moon made his stakes debut two races later, taking the (G2) Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park by 3 1/2 lengths over Solomini, who he'll face again in the Derby, and Combatant, who will need a withdrawal to get in. The Rebel win was worth 50 qualifying points. He then picked up another 100 points by winning the (G1) Arkansas Derby by four lengths over those two as well as Quip, who is 10th on the leaderboard. Magnum Moon's 150 points put him in first place in the final standings.  

Magnum Moon's Race Record

As mentioned, Magnum Moon only came to the races this year, and since making his debut he's had an evenly spaced scheduled of one race a month through January, February, March and April. He won his maiden race at Gulfstream Park by 4 1/2 lengths, and then captured an allowance event at Tampa Bay Downs by 2 lengths, racing just over one mile. He then stretched out to 1 1/16 miles for the Rebel win, and then 1 1/8 miles in the Arkansas Derby. He'll go into the Kentucky Derby with a perfect record of four wins in four starts.

Magnum Moon Pedigree

Magnum Moon's sire is Malibu Moon, who only raced twice in his career, getting a win and a runner-up finish. The first of those was at 4 1/2 furlongs, and the second at 5 furlongs. His grandsire (like several others in this year's Derby) is A.P. Indy, who won the 1 1/4 mile Breeders' Cup Classic and the 1 1/2 mile Belmont Stakes, both in 1992. Magnum Moon's dam is a mare named Macoumba, who won three of six races in Europe, all on the turf, including a one-mile Group 1 race. Her sire was Mr. Prospector, was finished in the money in all seven lifetime starts, mostly racing at one mile. 

Why Magnum Moon Can Win the Kentucky Derby

He has shown steady improvement through all four of his races, and in Arkansas he showed a new ability to get to the front early and carry his speed throughout the race, something that he's likely going to need to do in Kentucky. He has already soundly beaten at least two of his Derby rivals, including a Grade 2 winner in Quip. He has good ability to quicken as they turn into the stretch drive, and his last 1/8 mile in the Arkansas at 11.99 seconds was the fastest finishing 1/8 time of all five 1 1/8-mile prep races. 

Why Magnum Moon Can't Win the Kentucky Derby

Overall, the Arkansas Derby wasn't a fast race, and he had a fairly easy time clicking off slow fractions on the lead, something he won't get at Churchill Downs. On paper, he seriously lacks distance pedigree, and in the Arkansas he drifted way out wide after coming off the final turn with a comfortable lead, and that's often the sign of a horse reaching his distance limit. Only one of the two colts unraced at two in the Derby can be the one to break the "Apollo curse" and right now his rival Justify looks more formidable.

Magnum Moon Betting Odds

Bovada's online racebook has Magnum Moon as fourth choice in the betting at odds of 8-1, while most current racing analysts have him somewhere in the 6-1 range. Based on his top-place finish on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, he's a candidate to take a lot of money from the large number of people who only ever bet the Derby, so he could be as low as 4-1.    

    See Also: Kentucky Derby Contenders: Good Magic

    Category : Betting Picks

    Tag : Bovada , Horse Racing

    More articles...
    Betting Picks - 19/04/21
    NFL Draft: Lawrence The Pick To Go No. 1 
    NFL Draft: Lawrence The Pick To Go No. 1

    In a quarterback-heavy year, Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence is the overwhelming favorite to go first overall in the 2021 NFL Draft picks. After that, though, things begin to get interesting. Any number of QBs could go in the 2-3 spots of the draft and there's been plenty of speculation on the order, leading to some attractive options in the betting odds and to some intriguing NFL Draft prop bets.

    Betting Picks - 15/04/21
    Jake Paul vs Ben Askren: Paul Stepping Up In Class 
    Jake Paul vs Ben Askren: Paul Stepping Up In Class

    In boxing terminology, Jake Paul is making a huge step up in class as he enters into the ring to face Ben Askren. Askren is a two-time MMA champion. Still, Paul, who has displayed his skill as a boxer in the past, remains a solid -150 favorite in the Jake Paul vs Ben Askren odds. While a champion fighter, Askren's background prior to MMA is in wrestling and jiu-jitsu.

    Betting Picks - 14/04/21
    UFC 261: Usman The Pick Over Masvidal 
    UFC 261: Usman The Pick Over Masvidal

    Kamaru Usman is the heavily-favored -400 betting choice in the UFC 261 odds to retain his UFC world welterweight belt in a rematch with Jorge Masvidal. Usman previously recorded a unanimous decision verdict over Masvidal at UFC 251. In the co-main event, UFC women's strawweight champ Zhang Weili is the -185 chalk in the UFC 261 picks to defend her title against former champion Rose Namajunas

    Betting Picks - 12/04/21
    The Oscars: Nomadland The Pick Of The Flicks 
    The Oscars: Nomadland The Pick Of The Flicks

    Making Oscars 2021 picks isn't like wagering on a sporting event. While certainly there is the so-called Oscar buzz that's generated around certain films, the decision on which movie, director or actor gains the Academy Award is solely based on a secret ballot held by the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. There are no past performances to assess, so going with an underdog isn't necessarily a bad strategy.