Brent Sedo | Mon 23/04/2018 - 13:33 EDT

2018 Kentucky Derby Contenders: Good Magic

2018 Kentucky Derby Contenders: Good Magic
The winner of the 2017 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and the Two-Year-Old Horse of the Year, Good Magic has been under a lot of scrutiny this spring on the road to the 2018 Kentucky Derby. He was a 12-1 oversight back in November when he won the BC Juvenile, and he'll be in that same range come Derby Day.

Good Magic on the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard

Good Magic picked up Derby qualifying points in four different races, going back to the (G1) Champagne Stakes last October where his second-place finish was worth four points. He then added 20 more with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile score.

For this year, he ran third in the (G2) Fountain of Youth to add 10 more, and then clinched his spot in the Derby lineup with the 100 points gained for winning the (G2) Blue Grass Stakes. His total of 134 points left him in second place in final Derby qualifying.

Good Magic’s Race Record

Good Magic has run five times in his career, finishing in the money every time, with two wins. He started his career with a runner-up result last summer in a maiden special weight event at Saratoga, and then ran second in the one-mile Champagne, finishing between fellow Kentucky Derby starters Firenze Fire and Enticed.

He got his first lifetime win next out in the Juvenile, beating Solomini, Bolt d’Oro, Firenze Fire and Free Drop Billy, all of whom will be in the Derby field. He ran a disappointing third in his 2018 debut in the Fountain of Youth, beaten by Derby runner Promises Fulfilled. He bounced back to win the Blue Grass over Derby contender Flameaway, as well as Free Drop Billy.

Good Magic’s Pedigree

Good Magic’s sire is Hall of Famer Curlin, who ran third in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, won the Preakness Stakes and was second in the Belmont Stakes, as well as the Jockey Club Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup Classic (on a sloppy track), both at the 1 1/4 miles Kentucky Derby distance. His dam, Glinda the Good, was a winner at one mile at the allowance level. Her sire was Hard Spun, who ran second in the 2007 Derby – one spot ahead of Curlin – and second in the 2007 BC Classic – one spot behind Curlin.  

Why Good Magic Can Win the Kentucky Derby

His race record shows that he has been a contender every time out, and he’s already beaten several others that he’ll be facing in the Derby field. He has good speed out of the gate that he can use to get into a good stalking position early in the race, but he doesn’t need use up a lot of energy to be on the lead from the get go. His pedigree indicates he should have no problem getting the 1 1/4 miles, something that has stopped many a Derby contender in the past.   

Why Good Magic Can’t Win the Kentucky Derby

There’s a nagging sense that he hasn’t progressed as well of some of his rivals from his two-year-old to three-year-old season. Although he ran third, he didn’t run very well, and his 2018 debut in the Fountain of Youth was a bad start to the year. He did come back to win the Blue Grass, but the time came back very slow, especially the crucial last 1/8 mile. He was all out at that point to get past Flameaway, who is in the Derby field but not considered a serious threat for the win. Only two horses in 34 years of the Breeders’ Cup (Street Sense, 2006; Nyquist, 2015) have managed to turn the BC Juvenile-Kentucky Derby double.

Good Magic Betting Odds

Right now Bovada’s online future bets pool has him at 11-1, and the consensus among North American handicappers is he deserves to be right in that range, and will probably be in high single-digits or low double-digits on race day, May 5.

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See Also: Kentucky Derby Contenders: Magnum Moon

Category : Betting Picks

Tag : Bovada , Horse Racing

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