UFC 269 Picks: Dustin Poirier Favorite to Beat Charles Oliveira

UFC 269 Picks: Dustin Poirier Favorite to Beat Charles Oliveira

Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier odds

  • Charles Oliveira - +135
  • Dustin Poirier - -165

The current reigning champion 'Du Bronx' comes into the fight as a +148 underdog with BetOnline sports betting after winning the vacant title with a comeback second-round knockout win over Michael Chandler in his last bout at UFC 262 in May. That means for every $100 you stake, you'll make $148 in profit.

Poirier is coming into the fight off consecutive wins over Conor McGregor earlier in 2021, making it a three-fight win streak since his defeat to Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 242. You can get Poirier at a tasty -165 as the favorite with MyBookie sports betting. That means you need to stake $165 in order to see back $100 in return for your bet.

Oliveira vs Poirier preview

This is a fight between two of the best lightweights in the world right now and it is guaranteed fireworks when they step into the octagon together.

Oliveira is the current champion and currently has a record of 31-8 with nine knockout wins and 18 submissions, including 14 wins by tap-out in the UFC, more than anyone else in history. He won the title with a knockout victory over Chandler, with a picture-perfect right-hook followed up with ground and pound.

Standing opposite him will be the man that many people consider to be the best in the world currently, with a record of 28-6 including 14 knockouts and seven submission wins. His most notable wins have come over 'Notorious' Conor McGregor in 2021 by stoppage, but he has also previously KO'd Justin Gaethje and Eddie Alvarez in the lightweight division.

While Poirier is an excellent boxer on the feet with some decent wrestling in his back pocket too, it's Oliveira who holds the advantage in grappling with some of the most devastating Brazilian jiu-jitsu in the entire MMA world.

Charles Oliveira To beat Dustin Poirier

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Oliveira must grapple to succeed

Both of these fighters are incredibly well-rounded when it comes to the fight game, but they have their preferences in different areas of the MMA world.

For Oliveira, there is nobody better in the world when it comes to grappling in MMA in the 155lbs division. Oliveira is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, with excellent trips and takedowns. He also sets up his takedowns well with his crisp and technical striking skills, while his cardio has proven to stand the test of time in the past too.

On the feet Oliveira is good, but he isn't quite on Poirier's level. Prolonged striking exchanges will see him at a disadvantage, so he needs to close the distance and get the fight to the ground to be able to control the fight. He is skilled enough to keep Poirier down and work his submission game, which is his best route to success in this fight.

Back Poirier to win inside the distance

'The Diamond' has seen his six professional defeats split evenly between knockouts, submissions, and decisions. His most recent loss came against Nurmagomedov, who choked him with a rear-naked choke in the third round of their fight in his last title shot.

Since then he has shown a willingness to wrestle offensively against McGregor, while also showing his knockout power and improved boxing skills. It's where he holds a clear advantage over Oliveira in this matchup and he needs to use that boxing to maintain his range and deliver as much damage as possible.

Oliveira got badly hurt in his fight against Chandler but managed to survive the wild swings that followed where he tried to get the finish. Poirier is far more meticulous with his striking when the opponent is hurt and uses his combinations to the body and head brilliantly, while also having a solid chin of his own to be able to withstand any counters coming his way.

With the shape, Poirier is in physically and mentally, there isn't a lightweight in the world right now that I'd pick over him. He hits hard, he's quick, he's good defensively and he is mentally prepared for what a title brings to him.

Poirier has promised a finish in this fight in his favor, and it's hard to see how this goes the distance in the stand-up battle needed for Poirier to earn the win. If it's on the ground, I don't think he'll survive the full 25 minutes and if it's a stand-up war then I don't see how Oliveira can take the punishment he'll receive.

Dustin Poirier via KO/TKO/Submission/DQ To beat Dustin Poirier