A wonderful NFL season continues into week 3 this week as we start to weed out the contenders from the pretenders.
In a highly entertaining season so far, this week we'll look at three games involving the Kansas City Chiefs facing the Indianapolis Colts, the Detroit Lions taking on the Minnesota Vikings and also the Atlanta Falcons' clash against the Seattle Seahawks.
We'll break down each game and give your our best free NFL picks for betting and see if we can earn you some extra cash for the end of the weekend.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts - 9/25/22, 13:00 ET
It's been a picture perfect start for the Chiefs so far this season, with a 2-0 record after two wins on the different end of the spectrum.
They opened the season with a dominant blowout win over the Arizona Cardinals, with a 44-21 scoreline in their favor. Two huge 14-0 quarters led the way for the big win, as Patrick Mahomes threw for five touchdowns.
They followed that up with a close 27-24 win over the Los Angeles Chargers in week 2, with a huge touchdown in the fourth quarter enough to secure them the win after being behind at the end of each of the first three quarters.
The Colts have had a poor start to the season thus far, going 0-1-1 in their opening two games. The season opener against the Houston Texans ended in a 20-20 tie after overtime, with the Colts staging an incredible comeback with a 17-0 final quarter.
But they were then embarrassed in week 2 as the Jacksonville Jaguars staged a complete shutout with a dominant 24-0 win, leaving the Colts winless heading into week 3.
Chiefs to cover the spread
This game tells a tale of two clubs going in opposite directions early. The Chiefs look formidable and have silenced the doubters of their team without Tyreek Hill, while the Matt Ryan-era with the Colts has begun poorly.
The Colts need a win here to really kickstart their season and get themselves started, but expecting that to come against Mahomes and the Chiefs is just unfair in reality.
Granted, the Colts could get Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce and Shaq Leonard back from their respective injuries, but the Chiefs should still have too much for them.
While Indianapolis are capable of moving the football, they are ranked bottom in the NFL in points scored per game (10.0). On the other side, the Colts’ defense is still trying to find its way without Matt Eberflus and will be challenged by a Kansas City offense that ranks fifth in passing yards (403.5) and third in points (35.5).
NFL betting picks - Kansas to cover -5.5 @ -110
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Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings - 9/25/22, 13:00 ET
A highly entertaining start to the season for the Lions has seen them go 1-1 but do themselves no harm in the eyes of bettors.
They opened the season with a 38-35 defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles despite an attempted final quarter comeback, before a 36-27 win on the road against the Washington Commanders last time out.
The Vikings are also 1-1 after their first two games, and had two completely opposite performances themselves in each game.
They claimed a 23-7 win over the Green Bay Packers on the opening weekend, shutting them out in three of four quarters to get tongues wagging about their defense, before they found themselves controlled by the Eagles in a 24-7 loss where they only got on the board in one quarter.
Back the overs
In the first two games of the season that the Lions have played, 136 total points have been scored. Moreover, going back to their past four games dating back to 2021, 283 total points were scored. Expect points to rain in Minnesota on Sunday afternoon.
This isn’t the Lions of the past. Dan Campbell‘s Lions have grit and can win in the trenches while opening up the big play for Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and company.
The hope for the Vikings is that Kirk Cousins will remember he’s an NFL quarterback and distribute the ball to Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and Dalvin Cook, who were all invisible in Monday night's loss to the Eagles.
Both clubs have explosive offenses with questionable defenses. But statistically they're an interesting look.
While the Vikings are sixth in points allowed (15.5), they are 29th in total yards surrendered (412.0) and 24th in rushing (137.0), which plays into Detroit’s offensive strength. The Over is 4-0 in the past four games the Lions have played and 4-0 in their last four against the NFC, making this a no-brainer.
NFL betting picks - Over 52.5 total points @ -115
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Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks - 9/25/22, 16:25 ET
It's not been a fun start for the Falcons, ending up on the wrong end of two close games to go 0-2.
The Falcons gave up a big lead on the opening weekend when they conceded 17 points in the final quarter to lose 27-26 against the New Orleans Saints, before being dominated for the most part against the Los Angeles Rams before attempting to stage a comeback of their own in the fourth quarter. Ultimately they weren't able to though, falling to a 31-27 defeat.
The Seahawks alternatively were able to score a tight win in week 1 when they pipped the Denver Broncos 17-16, before they suffered a gruelling defeat to the San Francisco 49ers 27-7 in which they were restricted to points in just the third quarter.
Back the Falcons
|NFL Week 3|
Seattle’s offense is a bottom-six unit in terms of offensive production and their defense is barely better. They will host a Falcons offense that is ninth in points (26.5) and has the firepower to blitz them if given the opportunity.
On paper, this game is ugly. However, it is also a game that favors the road underdog. The Falcons are 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine road games and 4-1 ATS in their past five meetings with the Seahawks.
NFL betting picks - Atlanta Falcons moneyline @ -110