Betting on Canelo Alvarez vs Caleb Plant
- November 6th, 2021
- MGM Grand, Las Vegas
- DAZN & Showtime PPV
An absolute banger of a fight headlines the card as Canelo Alvarez looks to become the undisputed champion in yet another weight class when he takes on the undefeated current IBF champion Caleb Plant.
In what promises to be an explosive bout, the two already came to blows during their recent press conference to announce the fight.
Plant and Canelo went face-to-face in the face-off and when Canelo shoved Plant away from him, Plant looked to retaliate with a punch. Canelo slipped the punch however and countered with a big left hand which escalated the feud between the two ahead of this showdown in Vegas.
Looking at the odds, this fight doesn't look close. Canelo is the -1100 favorite ahead of fight night, with a career record of 56 wins from 59 fights standing him as one of the best of his generation. His only defeat came as a 23-year-old against arguably the greatest of all time in Floyd Mayweather Jr and he has since gone on to win 14 of his next 15 bouts.
Plant however is no pushover. He is 21-0 with 12 knockouts in his career and has most recently beaten contenders Vincent Feigenbutz and Caleb Truax to set this fight up.
Canelo's body shots
Anyone who has watched Canelo before knows all about his powerful, ripping shots to the body and they could be key in this bout.
Plant likes to lean forward with his hands low in order to seem like a longer fighter, using his excellent jab to set up strikes and using his high guard and rolls in a similar way to what Mayweather did during his career. He often leaves his head open to strikes so he can counter his opponent, but Canelo is far too smart for that.
Don't be surprised to see Canelo fake to the head to draw a reaction and rip some body shots.
He'll also look to try and corner Plant so that he can fight on the inside as much as possible, opening up opportunities for those body shots to really pay dividends.
To beat Caleb Plant
Plant must replicate Mayweather
Now, this is obviously much easier said than done, but Plant's best chance of securing a victory in this fight is to prioritize his defensive boxing and look to land counters just like 'Money' Mayweather did.
Canelo was a totally different fighter back then, but he still likes to lead the dance and swing for the fences with almost every blow. Plant is good with his feet and has a great jab to maintain distance, but he also has the ability to roll well with shots coming towards him which is positive against a power puncher like Canelo.
'Sweet Hands' likes to keep his lead hand low, making his jab difficult to pick up for his opponent and his Philly-style shell defense is decent, but it will need to be more than that on the night.
Plant has struggled in the past with fighters that have fast hands, power, and size and Canelo fits that bill perfectly. His chin has always held up in the past though and his counter-striking is excellent, especially his right cross that he likes to throw straight down the pipe.
Canelo by Knockout - (-188)
This fight is just another notch on the tally for Canelo's greatness and legacy. The Mexican is already one of the greatest pound-for-pound fighters ever but this will cement him as one of the most decorated.
He will likely look to close the distance using footwork rather than lunging for punches to avoid the counter and once he's on the inside, expect him to try and force Plant towards the corners and ropes to be able to unload a big barrage of strikes to the body and head.
The body shots will pay dividends as the fight goes and as we begin to enter the final stages of the fight, expect Canelo to switch it up and start going for that killer blow to turn the lights out on Plant.
To win by KO
Back a late finish
Canelo isn't the fastest starter to a fight, often taking a few rounds to download whatever information he feels he needs to be able to move forward in fights.
Plant on the other hand isn't the most explosive or powerful fighter out there, so the chances of an early finish in this one aren't high. Canelo is likely to take his time to work on the inside and 'chop the tree' with his body shots while avoiding the boxing skills of Plant's jab.
The body shots will take their toll later in the fight which will allow Canelo to go for the kill with the headshots, so a finish from the seventh round onwards looks like the most likely.
You can back Canelo to win between Round 7-12 at +160 and that seems like printing money if this fight isn't to go the distance as expected.
To win between rounds 7-12
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