Breeders’ Cup Mile Odds: Preview And Future Bets
Breeders’ Cup Mile Contenders
From a betting angle, the Breeders’ Cup Mile has been something of a feast-or-famine event in recent years, with a look at the past ten races showing it has either been dominated by a couple strong favorites, or won by a fairly big long shot. With the top-rated runners all facing some question marks, this year’s event could set up for a big payday.
Ribchester – Top Euro runner has won three of his last four, all at the Group 1 level, and was 2nd in the other. Scheduled to race at Royal Ascot only two weeks before the BC, which will then be his first lifetime North American start.
World Approval – Top North American choice is a front-runner who seems to hit his best stride at the mile distance. Has won four of five this year.
Barney Roy – Three-year-old UK bred has been in the money in every one of his six lifetime starts, winning three.
Winter – Another three-year-old looking to take on elders, won four straight Group 1s over the summer, but was a soundly beaten 9th last out in the Arc de Triomphe. Not yet declared for the BC.
Decorated Knight – Three Group 1 wins this year makes him competitive with this field, but he may need more distance for his best.
Yoshida – Japanese-bred and US-based, he has a win in his last start but would be taking a big step up in class. Not yet declared for the BC.
Called To The Bar – Three-year-old Irish bred ran very well to get second in his North American debut in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby Invitational. Could be a sleeper pick if he runs.
Al Wukair – Somewhat under the radar, despite the fact he’s won four of six lifetime starts and ran 2nd and 3rd in the other two. Won a Group 1 at a mile last out.
Good Samaritan – Finished 3rd in the 2016 BC Juvenile Turf, but finishing out of the money in three of his last four puts his participation here in doubt.
Roly Poly – Kentucky-bred filly has had good results recently racing in Europe, but is not likely good enough to take on the males here.
Oscar Performance – 2016 BC Juvenile Turf winner had a poor start to 2017, but has been much better lately, with a pair of recent Grade 1 wins.
Homesman – Another Kentucky bred who has done most of his racng across the pond, was a credible third last out in his North American debut, but would need to make a big move forward.
Alice Springs – Irish filly was well-backed in the 2016 Mile, going off at 4-1, after finishing 2nd in the 2015 BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, but ran a disappointing 9th.
Qemah – Another filly with a number of Group 1 wins to her name, she’s been off form lately, finishing out of the money in three straight.
2017 Breeders’ Cup Mile Betting
The Breeders’ Cup Mile is the second-last race of Breeders’ Cup weekend, race #8 of 9 on Saturday, November 4 from Del Mar Race Track. The race offers a purse of $2 million, is open to horses aged three and older, and is run on the turf course.
The Key Betting Trends
- Expect World Approval to take lots of North American money and drop from +500
- Five long-shot winners in the past 10 years had average odds of +2500
- American-breds have won 20 of 33 BC Miles since the race began
- Late-coming entries such as Suedois and Ballah Rocks could alter the odds
Future Bet Underlays
Three-year-olds facing older horses for the first time such as Barney Roy and Winter could see their odds go up by post time, as well as any fillies that run.
Future Bet Overlays
World Approval will almost certainly be lower than +500, while Oscar Performance is also likely to drift down from +1400 in the North American betting pools.
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